FanPost

Projecting the Rest of the Season

What happens when you simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times using the latest standings and team form? You gets lots of data, that's what!

A few folks out there in the internet project a team's chances of top 4, relegation and everything in between. I decided to take a stab at it too. Here's what I did...

Methodology (you can skip this part unless you need help sleeping)

For each team in the BPL, take each of their last four games, both home and away. We'll call that their "home form" and "away form."

For each form type (home and away), calculate their average goals for and against as well as the standard deviation for those average goals.

For each upcoming game, take the home team's average goals scored and add or subtract a random number (generated on a normal distribution) using the standard deviation.

Next, do the same for their opponent's average goals conceded.

Then, average the home team's expected goals scored with the away team's expected goals conceded. This is number is the goals we expect the home team to score.

Then do the same calculations for the away team, e.g. the away team's expected goals scored with the home team's expected goals conceded.

Do this for every team and every match for the rest of the season, and then do each season 10,000 times.

Here's a simple one-game example using Southampton v Liverpool:

Liverpool's away form:

Average goals scored: 1 Standard Deviation: 0.82

Average goals conceded: 0 Standard Deviation 0 (wow!)

Southampton's home form:

Average goals scored: .75 Standard Deviation: 0.96

Average goals conceded: 0.50 Standard Deviation 0.58

So, take the averages and add random number that falls within the standard deviation:

Liverpool goals scored: 1 + .52 = 1.52 (rounded up) = 2

Southampton goals conceded: 0.5 + .2 = 0.7 (rounded up) = 1

Now average those two to get Liverpool's expected goals scored: (1 + 2) / 2 = 1.5 (rounded up) = 2.

Cool! So Liverpool will score two goals...

But how many will Southampton score?

Liverpool goals conceded: 0 + 0 = 0

Southampton goals scored: 0.75 + 0.4 = 1.15 (round down) = 1

Yes! Liverpool wins 2-1!

Now all we need to do is repeat this for every other match for the rest of the season and then for 10,000 seasons! I'm gonna need a lot of paper....

The Results

Raw:

Chelsea 0.9989
Manchester City 0.8279
Arsenal 0.6913
Southampton 0.5838
Manchester United 0.56
Tottenham Hotspur 0.197
Liverpool 0.1544
West Ham United 0.0002

Offer your favorite Chelsea haters 500 to 1 odds that Chelsea won't make top 4. Step 2: Profit

OK, so things don't look so good for Liverpool. The next game is very important...

If Liverpool wins our chances of top 4 climbs to 22.7%

A draw drops us to a 10.7% chance.

A loss all but spells doom with a 6% chance of reaching the top four.

So, according to this, where will Liverpool finish?

Raw:

Position Runs
1 1
2 207
3 434
4 902
5 1579
6 2935
7 3616
8 284
9 40
10 2

If you go by the "mode", Liverpool will finish 7th. The average finishing position is closer to 6th.

The Final Table

team avg_position avg_total_points
Chelsea 1.115 82.0191
Manchester City 3.0979 72.706
Arsenal 3.7894 70.4536
Southampton 4.18 69.4843
Manchester United 4.2397 69.4864
Tottenham Hotspur 5.7381 65.7138
Liverpool 5.8794 65.1911
West Ham United 8.579 53.7559
Newcastle United 9.54 50.8616
Stoke City 9.8498 50.0148
Swansea City 11.593 45.5953
Crystal Palace 12.6748 42.7879
Everton 13.5225 40.8957
Hull City 14.5296 39.2747
West Bromwich Albion 14.6133 39.3031
Sunderland 16.3783 36.2102
Queens Park Rangers 16.4291 36.1547
Aston Villa 17.8991 33.651
Burnley 18.0344 33.156
Leicester City 18.1182 32.3466

Conclusion

Liverpool need a victory versus Southampton to be seriously considered for a top 4 finish. Anything less will likely require a minor miracle if we are to get a CL qualification by BPL league position.

EDIT - New chart showing probabilities based on points earned in the next four matches:

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