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Liverpool BPL Player Analysis

Ten games in, it's time to check out the numbers!

A quick refresher on what we're doing here...

I keep track of the minutes played for each player, also noting the goals scored for and against while they are on the pitch.

I also keep track of the other teams in the league and specifically how many goals they score and concede, both home and away to non-Liverpool opponents.

Using this information, I calculate the normalized GF and GA statistics for each player. For example, a GF "score" of 0.00 means that for that player, you can expect the team to score exactly the average number of goals vs any opponent. A negative number means you can expect expect fewer goals than the average BPL team, and a positive number means more goals. Conversely, a negative GA number means the team conceded fewer goals with that player on the pitch, and of course a positive GA means the team can expect to concede more goals than the average BPL team when he's on the field. Finally I subtract the GA from the GF stat to give us a "score" for each player (labeled net_p90) in the tables below.

The value in this kind of measurement can only be realized if the player you are looking at plays less than all the minutes. E.g. players like Gerrard, Mignolet, and Lovren all have the same score because they've played every minute of every game.

For a more detailed explanation of the methodology (especially if you are having trouble sleeping), see the Player Analysis - Methodology post.

So, away we go - the ten game analysis - selection limited to players with 180 or more minutes.

lastName pos net_gfp90 net_gap90 net_p90 minutes appearances avg_points
Sturridge ST 1.33 -0.08 1.42 270 3 2
Manquillo FB 0.54 -0.51 1.04 536 7 1.57
Allen MID 1.01 0.02 0.99 313 6 1.67
Can MID -0.45 -1.44 0.98 186 4 1.75
Balotelli ST 0.24 -0.48 0.71 606 8 1.38
Henderson MID 0.51 -0.05 0.56 825 10 1.4
Sterling MID 0.41 -0.16 0.56 823 10 1.4
Mignolet GK 0.37 -0.15 0.52 900 10 1.4
Gerrard MID 0.37 -0.15 0.52 900 10 1.4
Lovren CB 0.37 -0.15 0.52 900 10 1.4
Markovic MID 0.08 -0.34 0.42 281 5 0.8
Sakho CB 0.12 -0.27 0.39 248 3 1
Skrtel CB 0.25 -0.07 0.32 630 7 1.57
Moreno FB 0 -0.25 0.25 720 8 1
Johnson FB 0.5 0.43 0.07 386 5 1.8
Coutinho MID 0.2 0.53 -0.33 463 8 1.38
Lallana MID -0.6 -0.25 -0.34 413 6 1.33

For comparison's sake, here's last year's data (min 720 minutes):

lastName pos net_gfp90 net_gap90 net_p90 minutes appearances avg_points
Cissokho FB 1.66 -0.02 1.68 1090 15 2.2
Flanagan FB 1.71 0.16 1.55 1891 23 2.35
Sterling MID 1.48 -0.05 1.53 2139 32 2.28
Suarez ST 1.62 0.13 1.49 2961 33 2.24
Henderson MID 1.33 -0.16 1.49 3128 35 2.29
Allen MID 1.41 -0.02 1.43 1443 24 2.29
Sturridge ST 1.41 -0.01 1.43 2246 28 2.25
Johnson FB 1.51 0.07 1.43 2516 29 2.38
Skrtel CB 1.48 0.07 1.4 3221 36 2.17
Mignolet GK 1.34 0 1.34 3420 38 2.21
Coutinho MID 1.45 0.13 1.32 2236 32 2.22
Sakho CB 1.38 0.12 1.25 1296 15 1.93
Agger CB 1.04 -0.15 1.19 1509 20 2.45
Gerrard MID 1.33 0.13 1.19 2895 34 2.29
Leiva MID 0.92 -0.03 0.95 1871 27 2.04
Toure CB 0.94 -0.01 0.95 1443 20 2

Mignolet has played every minute in the past two seasons, so we can say he is a proxy for Liverpool.

Note that last season, Liverpool scored 1.34 more goals than expected while conceding exactly the league average.

This year, we've conceded less than the average, at -0.15. Normally that would be great news, but as you can see we are scoring a goal less per game vs the average than last season.

The Good

Our defense has improved!!

The Bad

We can't score without Sturridge!

How does your favorite player stack up? Anything else you'd like to see?

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