The 2015/16 version of Liverpool can't shoot. Well I take they back, they have no trouble shooting, but when they shoot it's not on goal, and when they manage to get a shot on goal it goes in at a far lower rate than the rest of the league. This is not a winning recipe.
Through 20 games Liverpool have taken 324 shots, good enough for 2nd in the league. Here's the problem, 29% of shots are on target - dead last in the league. Still, with the second-most number of shots, and even with a miserable on target percentage, they must be still be scoring, right? Wrong. The league average for shots on target finding glory is 29%. Liverpool are next to last in conversion rate at 22%.
Coutinho is a good proxy for the team. He's taken by far the most number of shots (77 - next highest is Benteke with 42), his on-target % is 28.5%. His conversion rate for shots on goal is 22.7%.
But it's not fair to pick on the little magician. This is what he's always done. He takes a lot of shots, not many are on goal, and he doesn't convert very many.
Player | season | shots | sot | on_tgt_pct | goals | sot_goal_pct |
Coutinho | 13 | 94 | 27 | 28.7 | 5 | 18.5 |
Coutinho | 14 | 103 | 34 | 33 | 5 | 14.7 |
Coutinho | 15 | 77 | 22 | 28.5 | 5 | 22.7 |
One difference is his shots per 90. In 2013/14 and 2014/15, he averaged 3.78 shots per 90. This season so far he's averaged 4.7 shots per 90 minutes. How much that extra shot per game costs Liverpool is debatable, but I suspect it's not much.
No Liverpool fans, something else has changed. So let's take a look at the rest of the team (minimum 5 shots).
name | shots | sot | on_tgt_pct | goals | goal_pct |
Danny Ings | 10 | 5 | 50 | 2 | 40 |
Divock Origi | 8 | 4 | 50 | 1 | 25 |
Daniel Sturridge | 12 | 5 | 41.6 | 2 | 40 |
Roberto Firmino | 23 | 9 | 39.1 | 1 | 11.1 |
Martin Skrtel | 8 | 3 | 37.5 | 1 | 33.3 |
Dejan Lovren | 16 | 6 | 37.5 | 0 | 0 |
Jordan Henderson | 9 | 3 | 33.3 | 1 | 33.3 |
Lucas | 6 | 2 | 33.3 | 0 | 0 |
Christian Benteke | 42 | 13 | 30.9 | 6 | 46.1 |
James Milner | 24 | 7 | 29.1 | 2 | 28.5 |
Philippe Coutinho | 77 | 22 | 28.5 | 5 | 22.7 |
Emre Can | 14 | 4 | 28.5 | 0 | 0 |
Adam Lallana | 22 | 5 | 22.7 | 0 | 0 |
Alberto Moreno | 15 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Jordon Ibe | 18 | 2 | 11.1 | 0 | 0 |
Nathaniel Clyne | 13 | 1 | 7.69 | 0 | 0 |
Compare that with our near-glory year 2013/14 (minimum 10 shots):
name | shots | sot | on_tgt_pct | goals | goal_pct |
Martin Skrtel | 15 | 8 | 53.3 | 7 | 87.5 |
Steven Gerrard | 60 | 31 | 51.6 | 13 | 41.9 |
Raheem Sterling | 45 | 22 | 48.8 | 9 | 40.9 |
Luis Suárez | 181 | 81 | 44.7 | 31 | 38.2 |
Daniel Sturridge | 99 | 42 | 42.4 | 21 | 50 |
Joe Allen | 19 | 8 | 42.1 | 1 | 12.5 |
Victor Moses | 11 | 4 | 36.3 | 1 | 25 |
Jordan Henderson | 49 | 16 | 32.6 | 4 | 25 |
Philippe Coutinho | 94 | 27 | 28.7 | 5 | 18.5 |
Glen Johnson | 20 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Mamadou Sakho | 10 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 100 |
What immediately jumps out to me when comparing these last two charts is the much greater number of poor shooters we have now. We have 5 Glen Johnson-esque players now - pitiful shot %s with no return whatsoever.
Looking at the tip of the attack, obviously we miss the world-class Suarez, but it still actually looks promising. Ings was looking quite dangerous and then he went down. Origi was also revealing what all the fuss was about and then he went down. Sturridge Sturridged. And for all the abuse he's getting, Benteke really isn't that far off where he was last season for Villa when his on target % was 36.7% and his conversion rate was 44.8%. As others have noted his second halves are generally much better than his first so I expect to see these decent numbers improve even more before the end of the year.
For me the take-away is Liverpool should not spend on strikers this season (or over the summer). We should instead spend whatever it takes to get a top, top physio who can keep these guys healthy and see what they can do. I think we would be pleasantly surprised.
Oh, and tell Lallana, Moreno, Clyne, Can and Ibe to quit shooting.