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How Important Is Goal Differential?



If you’re a fan of Liverpool FC then you are suddenly feeling pretty good about their chances of getting into the top four this season. My own simulation/analysis gives LFC a 38% chance of making the top four which is a huge leap from just a week ago as Manchester United, Southampton and Spurs all dropped points at the weekend.

Despite the good fortune, the tea leaves point to a fight that will in all likelihood come down to the last weekend. With such a tight race, pessimistic eyes are gazing upon LFC’s woeful goal differential and wondering – "what if?" Currently Liverpool’s goal differential stands at nine, well below all realistic contenders with the exception of Tottenheim. In a perfect world Liverpool would sport a gawdy goal differential to fall back on in the event they were tied on points, but how much difference does it really make?

To find out I modified the BPL Season Simulator and gave Liverpool the best goal differential (200!) in the league and compared those simulated seasons with the un-tampered results.

…in terms of probability of a top-four spot, a large goal-differential would improve Liverpool’s odds by a little less than 7%. Another way of looking at that is to say top-four (given exactly the same attributes as this season) would be decided by goal differential once every 14 seasons or so.

Let’s have a look at the table position:

name Big LFC GD Small LFC GD
Chelsea 1.57 1.56
Manchester City 1.86 1.84
Arsenal 3.52 3.47
Liverpool 4.72 4.96
Southampton 5.17 5.10
Manchester United 5.42 5.35
Tottenham Hotspur 5.84 5.83

…a big goal differential is a difference of less than one quarter of a position in the table. Another way of looking at that is to say it would make a difference about once every four seasons.

In conclusion it appears that a goal differential advantage, while not completely unimportant, is probably not as vital as most would suspect – even in a very tight race. Of course there are a number of caveats – this is comparing a simulation of 100,000 seasons at the current GD vs 100,000 seasons with a league-best GD. Not to mention that there are 12 games to go and as we get closer to that final weekend these numbers can jump considerably in one direction or the other based on where things stand. If you’re a Liverpool fan the solution is obvious – just win all the games.

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